GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day -9
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Explosions rock Isfahan: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Apr 5 — April 05, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-04-04. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-04.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€55.86/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-02
VIX
23.87 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-02
Brent Crude
$109.24/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-03
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-03
EU Gas Storage
28.20%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-04-04
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Explosions rock Isfahan in Central Iran — TV | 5 | 4.6% | TASS World News |
| What Beijing Is Learning From Operation Epic Fury | 5 | 30.6% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk tone is stabilizing with mixed signals from geopolitical and energy sectors. Key drivers include the recent explosions in Isfahan, Iran, indicating ongoing regional instability, and increased attention from Beijing on Middle East energy operations. Despite these tensions, energy prices remain steady, suggesting market participants are absorbing risks without immediate price shocks. The rise in EERI (Locked — free account) reflects elevated energy-related geopolitical concerns, while the drop in GERI (Locked — free account) signals a slight easing in broader global risk sentiment.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: 109.24 (unchanged)
- TTF Gas: 55.86 (unchanged)
- VIX: 23.87 (-0.67)
- EUR/USD: 1.1544 (-0.23%)
- EU Gas Storage: 28.2% (+0.30%)
## GERI DIRECTION
Current GERI: 18 (down 3 points)
Interpretation: A modest decline in global economic risk, reflecting a slight easing of broad market fears despite localized geopolitical disruptions.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor developments in Iran’s Isfahan region for potential escalation impacting Middle East energy supply routes.
- Track Beijing’s strategic moves in Middle East energy operations for shifts in regional influence and supply dynamics.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 21 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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