GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
27 / 100
MODERATE1 day 2 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Oil Spike Collides: GERI 27 | Energy Risk Mar 31 — March 31, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 27 (MODERATE) on 2026-03-30. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 27; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-03-30.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€54.82/MWh
+0.55%
Source date: 2026-03-30
VIX
30.61 points
-0.44 points
Source date: 2026-03-30
Brent Crude
$115.33/bbl
+0.46%
Source date: 2026-03-30
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-03-30
EU Gas Storage
28.10%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-03-30
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Spike Collides With Fragile Global Growth | 5 | 20.6% | OilPrice.com |
| Fitch signals downgrade risk for Qatar over post-Iran war security concerns - Reuters | 5 | 12.5% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk tone remains low despite rising tensions. Key drivers include a sharp oil price increase amid fragile European growth and Fitch’s downgrade warning on Qatar linked to Middle East security risks post-Iran war. These factors suggest localized geopolitical stress with limited spillover to broader markets. The moderate rise in energy risk indices indicates cautious market positioning without triggering widespread risk aversion.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: $115.33 (+0.46%)
- TTF Gas: €54.82/MWh (+0.55%)
- VIX: 30.61 (-0.44%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1544 (-0.23%)
- EU Gas Storage: 28.1% (unchanged)
## GERI DIRECTION
GERI at 27, up 2 points. The index is edging higher, reflecting increased geopolitical tension primarily from energy price shocks and Middle Eastern credit concerns, but still within a low-risk range.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor oil price trajectory as supply concerns from Middle East instability may further pressure Brent, impacting European growth outlook.
- Watch Fitch’s rating actions on Qatar for potential contagion effects on regional energy credit markets and related risk premiums.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.46% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.55% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 27. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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