Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence Digest - March 25, 2026

EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT

• Global risk tone stabilizing after recent volatility.


• Key drivers: US air travel system disruption due to TSA worker issues; escalation in Middle East conflict following Iranian missile strike on Israel.


• Market volatility modestly increased (VIX +0.80), reflecting cautious sentiment.


• Energy prices declined sharply amid easing immediate supply concerns and risk-off positioning.


• Interpretation: Despite geopolitical tensions, the market is digesting risk factors with a stabilizing outlook, likely awaiting clearer developments before directional shifts.

BASIC ASSET MOVES

• Brent Crude: $98.16 (-2.99%)


• TTF Gas: €56.97/MWh (-7.83%)


• VIX Index: 26.95 (+0.80)


• EUR/USD: 1.1544 (-0.23%)


• EU Gas Storage: 28.4% (no change)

GERI DIRECTION

• Current GERI: 28, down 17 points.


• Interpretation: Significant drop signals reduced energy market stress, aligning with price declines and stabilizing risk tone.

SHORT WATCHLIST

• Monitor US air travel system disruptions for potential knock-on effects on logistics and energy demand.


• Watch Middle East conflict developments for risk premium adjustments in oil markets.