GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
40 / 100
MODERATE1 day -13 · 7 day -10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
EU Winter Gas: GERI 40 | Energy Risk Mar 14 — March 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 40 (MODERATE) on 2026-03-13. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 40; 1-day change: -13.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-03-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€49.69/MWh
-1.33%
Source date: 2026-03-13
VIX
27.19 points
-0.10 points
Source date: 2026-03-13
Brent Crude
$103.14/bbl
+3.09%
Source date: 2026-03-13
EUR/USD
1.1416 USD/EUR
-0.93%
Source date: 2026-03-13
EU Gas Storage
29.00%
-0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-03-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU Winter Gas Supply Risk: CRITICAL - Storage at 29.0% | 5 | 95.0% | Source not recorded |
| Brent Holds Above $100 as Conflict Drags | 5 | 9.6% | Rigzone |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
The global risk tone remains moderate with heightened concern over European winter gas supply, marked critical due to storage levels at Locked — free account. Brent crude prices remain elevated above $Locked — free account amid ongoing geopolitical conflict, sustaining upward pressure on energy costs. The slight increase in the EERI suggests rising energy-related event risks, while the GERI decline indicates easing general geopolitical tensions. Overall, energy market stress is concentrated in Europe’s gas supply vulnerability, influencing broader commodity prices.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: $103.14 (+3.09%)
- TTF Gas: €49.69 (-1.33%)
- VIX: 27.19 (-0.10)
- EUR/USD: 1.1416 (-0.93%)
- EU Gas Storage: 29.0% (-0.10)
## GERI DIRECTION
- Current Value: 40
- Direction: Down (-13)
- Interpretation: General geopolitical risk has eased notably, but energy-specific risks remain elevated, reflecting a divergence between broad geopolitical calm and sector-specific stress.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor EU gas storage trends closely; sub-30% levels could trigger renewed supply concerns and price volatility heading into winter.
- Watch Brent crude for sustained support above $100, as ongoing conflict-driven supply risks may maintain upward price momentum.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.82% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.33% between recorded quotes; GERI 53 → 40. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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