Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence Digest - March 11, 2026

EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT

Global risk tone remains elevated and is rising, driven by heightened Middle East tensions and escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict narratives. The U.S. Navy’s caution on Hormuz escorts signals increased regional instability, while Russia’s planned UN briefing on Kiev’s strike adds geopolitical strain. Despite these, market volatility (VIX) slightly eased, reflecting some risk absorption. The divergence between rising geopolitical risk indices and falling energy prices suggests market uncertainty on near-term supply disruptions.

BASIC ASSET MOVES

• Brent Crude: $88.46 (-4.27%)


• TTF Gas: €46.7 (-15.83%)


• VIX: 24.93 (-0.57)


• EUR/USD: 1.1618 (-0.07%)


• EU Gas Storage: 29.3% (flat)

GERI DIRECTION

GERI: 59 (+10) — The Global Energy Risk Index surged, indicating a sharp increase in perceived energy market risk primarily from geopolitical developments. This jump suggests market participants are factoring in potential supply shocks despite current price declines.

SHORT WATCHLIST

• Monitor U.S. Navy statements on Hormuz security measures for shifts that could impact oil shipping routes.


• Watch for Russia’s UN briefing fallout, which may trigger further sanctions or retaliatory actions affecting energy supply chains.

Informational only. Not financial advice.