GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
34 / 100
MODERATE1 day 3 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Crude Surges as: GERI 34 | Energy Risk Feb 19 — February 19, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 34 (MODERATE) on 2026-02-18. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 34; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-02-18.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€30.53/MWh
-5.66%
Source date: 2026-02-18
VIX
19.62 points
-0.67 points
Source date: 2026-02-18
Brent Crude
$70.31/bbl
+4.38%
Source date: 2026-02-18
EUR/USD
1.1784 USD/EUR
-0.59%
Source date: 2026-02-18
EU Gas Storage
32.00%
-0.50 pp
Source date: 2026-02-18
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Surges as Iran Risks Grow | 5 | 26.2% | Rigzone |
| Security Council warns Armenia’s railway plans to replace Russia risk system collapse | 5 | 6.6% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk tone remains moderate with a slight uptick in geopolitical tensions. Key drivers include escalating Iran-related risks impacting Middle East energy supply and potential systemic disruptions from Armenia’s railway shift away from Russia. These factors are reflected in rising energy risk indices and a sharp crude price surge. The market is pricing in heightened supply concerns amid regional instability, while risk sentiment shows cautious improvement.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: +4.38% to 70.31 USD/bbl
- TTF Gas: -5.66% to 30.53 EUR/MWh
- VIX: -0.67 to 19.62
- EUR/USD: -0.59% to 1.1784
- EU Gas Storage: -0.50% at 32.0% capacity
## GERI DIRECTION
GERI: 34 (+3)
The Global Energy Risk Index is rising, indicating increased geopolitical and supply risks, primarily driven by Middle East tensions and Eurasian transport uncertainties.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor Iran-related developments for potential further crude volatility and supply disruptions.
- Track Armenia-Russia railway developments for broader regional energy transit impacts.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.29% between recorded quotes; TTF -5.66% between recorded quotes; GERI 31 → 34. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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