GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
40 / 100
MODERATE1 day 28 · 7 day 10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
EU Winter Gas: GERI 40 | Energy Risk Feb 9 — February 09, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 40 (MODERATE) on 2026-02-08. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 40; 1-day change: 28.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-02-08.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€35.69/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-06
VIX
20.37 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-06
Brent Crude
$67.34/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-06
EUR/USD
1.1826 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-02-06
EU Gas Storage
36.70%
-0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-02-08
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU Winter Gas Supply Risk: CRITICAL - Storage at 36.8% | 5 | 95.0% | Source not recorded |
| Oil slumps to 16-week low on U.S. shutdown and possible OPEC+ plans - Reuters | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk tone remains moderate with heightened energy concerns driving market sentiment. Key drivers include critical EU winter gas supply risk at Locked — free account storage and a sharp drop in oil prices to a Locked — free account-week low amid U.S. government shutdown fears and potential OPEC+ production adjustments. Elevated European energy risk index (EERI) signals growing regional stress, despite a modest decline in volatility (VIX). The divergence between rising gas prices and falling oil suggests market uncertainty over short-term energy demand and supply dynamics.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: $67.34 (-1.04%)
- TTF Gas: €35.69 (+8.68%)
- VIX: 20.37 (-1.40%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1826 (+0.07%)
- EU Gas Storage: 36.7% (-0.40%)
## GERI DIRECTION
Current GERI: 40 (+28)
The substantial increase in GERI reflects a notable rise in global energy risk perception, primarily driven by European gas supply concerns and oil market volatility.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor EU gas storage trends for further declines below 35%, which could intensify winter supply concerns and push TTF prices higher.
- Watch OPEC+ announcements for production changes that may influence Brent crude’s recovery or further declines amid geopolitical and U.S. fiscal uncertainties.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.04% between recorded quotes; TTF +8.68% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 40. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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